PICOR Connect | Trends in Commercial Real Estate

Consumer spending has been trending away from soft goods into experiences, food, and entertainment driven by post-COVIDdemand.

Throughout Q2 2022, the Tucson market remained relatively strong compared to other one million plus population markets.

During Q2, overall activity remained static despite more workers returning to the office. National companies were more likely to insist on a return to the office while local employers took more time to work alternatives.

Overall market sales volume remains strong with $68.1 million trading this quarter.

In Q2, Tucson’s post-pandemic office market began to re-center itself, as vaccinations became more widespread, and employers planned their return to office strategies. Vacancy rose to 9.5%, with an expectation it will approach 10.0% by year-end before stabilizing. Activity was strongest in the healthcare-related fields, with hospice, home health care, counseling and therapy uses most prevalent.

In Q2 2021, Tucson industrial and flex space of all types remained the darling during tumultuous pandemic times and for the foreseeable future. E-commerce and expanded consumer buying power drove logistics and fulfillment demand and a 5.5% vacancy rate in the market.

For investors looking for investments $20 million and under, Tucson ranked number 4 on the list of small/middle sized markets. A larger driver of the demand for multifamily in Tucson is the attractive year-over-year (YOY) average rent growth of 9.1%. The shortage of affordable and traditional housing in Tucson also fuels apartment rental demand. With construction costs tripling on certain[…]

Supply in the Tucson industrial market remains stable, with only one new industrial project under construction. We do hear of numerous proposed industrial developments in the region with 5,000-10,000 square foot (sf) bays. We expect supply of small-bay industrial (under 5,000 sf) to remain consistent until rents grow by 35%-50%.

Like Forrest Gump and Jenny, or peas and carrots, commercial real estate and the economy enjoy a special relationship. Thus at Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR, we introduce our quarterly commercial real estate update with an economic backdrop to inform our perspective.

The Tucson industrial market remained strong at midyear, as evidenced by our primary metric: Vacancy rate. Once again, vacancy has ticked-down, this time to 5.1%. Echoing the comments last quarter, Tucson is experiencing a “plateau effect” in the industrial sector in that the dynamic run-up in absorption slowed as the market leveled off at a highly-occupied equilibrium.