PICOR Connect | Trends in Commercial Real Estate

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 11,000 businesses in Arizona and 1,300 in Tucson received economic relief from the federal government. While Arizona posted one of the sharpest unemployment drops in the country in May, it increased in June from 9% to 10%. On a positive note, The University of Arizona reopened with a mixture of online and in-person classes on August 24^th, and LendingTree.com named Tucson the number one searched market for “homes for sale” during the pandemic in the U.S.

The vacancy rate of conventionally-operated, stabilized units increased 0.17% from last quarter to 6.1%. The University submarket had the lowest vacancy of any submarket at 3.7%. South Central Tucson, Southeast Tucson, and Pantano/Lakeside were the only three submarkets to record vacancies over 7.0%, with vacancies of 8.3%, 7.7% and 7.0% respectively. Five of the 15 submarkets experienced improved vacancy, with Tucson Mountain Foothills leading the way with a vacancy reduction of 2.0%. 

The Tucson apartment market has been driven by a multitude of factors. The first factor that is driving the apartment market is that higher paying jobs are entering the Tucson economy. Tucson’s job growth remained relatively stagnant the past five years with median household income in the metro area 15.5% below that of the U. S. Several recent, high-profile jobs announcements included hundreds of highly-skilled and highly-compensated positions. The second wave of employers contracting with and supporting these primary employers will broaden the opportunities at all levels. As reported by the MAP Dashboard project, Tucson’s MSA enjoys a lower cost of living than many of its peer cities in the West and was 3.0% below the nation, driven largely by rental rates (2015 data).

In Tucson's apartment market, the vacancy rate for conventionally-operated, stabilized units decreased by 0.35% from the previous quarter, while improving 0.28% from one year ago to 6.52%. Eight of Tucson’s 15 submarkets experienced occupancy gains, with the greatest improvements occurring in Tucson Mountain Foothills (-2.12%) and South Tucson/Airport (-2.09%).

Tucson’s apartment market experienced positive growth in all of the market indicators from the previous quarter. The vacancy rate for stabilized units improved by 0.56% from the previous quarter to a rate of 6.27%. 

Tucson’s multifamily market experienced minimal change from the previous quarter. The vacancy rate for stabilized units in Tucson increased 2 basis points from the previous quarter to a rate of 6.83%. This figure is very encouraging, given the seasonal nature of the Tucson apartment rental market. Many residents leave for the summer, escaping extreme heat, along with many students returning home. This is the lowest second quarter vacancy rate reported since 2006. Absorption decreased 29 units over the second quarter. 

No better news could have been reported for the Tucson apartment market than job growth, which translated into the strongest improvement in fundamentals in years.  The vacancy rate for stabilized units in Tucson dropped 100 basis points (bp) from the previous quarter to 6.8%.  This is the lowest first quarter rate since 2007. North Tucson, comprising Northeast Tucson (3.8%) and Oro Valley/Catalina (4.7%) reported the lowest vacancy rates. The University area experienced a 520 bps increase in vacancy, ending the quarter at 11.9%. One area of concern in this submarket is the potential of overbuilding in the student housing sector.  In addition, older units, especially those in outlying areas, are losing ground in the form of lease-up and rents to newer units.

The Tucson Apartment market saw continued growth in all major sectors in the fourth quarter of 2015. The vacancy rate improved 34 basis points (bps) during the quarter to finish the year at 7.82%. This marks a 105 bps improvement from the start of 2015, attributable to the previous year’s limited movement and a slight increase in job gains in the region.  Nine of the fifteen submarkets experienced improvement, with the largest gains seen in the Southwest and Oro Valley regions.  Quarterly absorption saw a slight improvement with 333 units absorbed as new developments began to lease-up stage.

Market Overview

In a show of local market strength, Tucson’s multifamily sector reported positive growth in all key statistical categories in the third quarter of 2015. Absorption increased by 623 units during this time period as students and winter visitors returned to the region. For the trailing twelve months, Metropolitan Tucson experienced a 740-unit increase in occupancy. The net rents for the Tucson market increased $9 per unit to an average rent of $651 per unit and $0.89 per sf (without utilities) in Metropolitan Tucson. Of note, this represented the largest rental gain in a single quarter since 2006. Gross rents have increased $15 per unit (2.36%) over the last year with the largest gross rental gain occurring in the Tucson Mountain Foothills ($44 per unit).  The greatest one-year decline was from the South Central Tucson market ($21 per unit). The leading indicators of absorption and net rents typically signal a strengthening market. The vacancy rate for conventionally-operated complexes improved 0.72% to an average of an 8.17% vacancy. Seasonal improvement is predicted most third quarters but the meaningful gains in each of these sectors is a true step in the right direction.  The sentiment among management companies as a whole is more positive on the growth and immediate future of the multi-family market.  As Tucson continues to add jobs in the marketplace, we will continue to see positive results in all the main sectors.