PICOR Connect | Trends in Commercial Real Estate

Not a day goes by that one of our landlord clients, an appraiser, or lender doesn’t ask us what the Tucson office market will look like once we work our way through the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We certainly wish we had a crystal ball that could see through this conundrum; however, it just isn’t that easy. The crystal ball, as clouded as it is, probably would not hold a vision of this pandemic ending tomorrow and all office workers returning back to their offices. The likelihood of this happening approaches zero. But, let’s just say it does end tomorrow, what happens to the office space?

Much has been written about the return to the office after the “Great Pandemic of 2020.” In March 2020 when millions of workers were sent home, speculation began about the “new workplace.” Many said working from home was the wave of the future and would spell the death of the office. Initial surveys showed that as many as 75% of workers wanted to work from home. With the elimination of drive-time, and being home with family, who wouldn’t? Even productivity seemed higher. Then, over time, started the little murmurs, that perhaps the office was not completely extinct. There was perhaps, still a need for the office and that workers wanted to return to the workplace. Recent workforce surveys demonstrate that the 75% want to return to the office, many of them younger, newer to the working world.

Yesterday, the U.S. government announced a phased plan for reopening the economy. Over the next several weeks and months, as areas stabilize from the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home restrictions are lifted, organizations will begin to bring workers back into the physical workplace. As many media outlets reported, Cushman & Wakefield recently launched its Recovery Readiness Task Force (RRTF) and have plans to share best practices for reopening workplaces. 

It's been a couple of weeks since we updated you on "business as unusual" at Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR. With daily changes in guidance from every level of government and deeper understanding of our responsibilities to support health at the human, property, and community levels, we have continued to flex, too.

"We face unprecedented and uncertain times because of COVID-19. However, the Chamber has been here for 123 years, and we intend to be here to lead businesses for another century. For this reason, based on available information, we emphatically believe it is in the best interests of the community, our restaurants and the employees that work in these establishments, to modify their operations to takeout and delivery only. In a meeting led by Mayor Regina Romero, including Vice-Mayor Paul Cunningham, our members, restaurateurs, Visit Tucson and the Pima County Health Department, this recommendation was strongly advocated for by the Chamber. Restaurants are regulated on having strong health and safety standards and they have been amplified during this crisis. Mayor Romero has called a Local Emergency to go in effect tonight at 8:00 p.m., to maintain public health. Dining rooms in restaurants, bars and food courts will be closed. Mayor Romero stated, “My top priority, above all else, is to protect public health. This is a painful decision that I do not take lightly. Our restaurants and small businesses need clear, uniform direction, and this order provides them exactly that.”

The retail sector has always been a dynamic arena of flux and of change. As our society and our culture has evolved and progressed, so has retail. The process of selling and the delivery of consumer goods has throughout history always progressed in order to keep pace with changes in transportation, technology, demographic shifts, and the resultant changes in consumer preferences. Today’s media is full of news of bankruptcies and store closures while simultaneously reporting year over year increased retail sales. While this may seem like a daunting and dangerous business environment this is business as usual for retailers and the industries that serve them. Retailing has always been a business and science that is constantly evolving. The current state of retailing is another evolution and stage of growth that will, inevitably, lead to the next stage of growth.

Like Forrest Gump and Jenny, or peas and carrots, commercial real estate and the economy enjoy a special relationship. Thus at Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR, we introduce our quarterly commercial real estate update with an economic backdrop to inform our perspective.

The Tucson industrial market remained strong at midyear, as evidenced by our primary metric: Vacancy rate. Once again, vacancy has ticked-down, this time to 5.1%. Echoing the comments last quarter, Tucson is experiencing a “plateau effect” in the industrial sector in that the dynamic run-up in absorption slowed as the market leveled off at a highly-occupied equilibrium. 

The vacancy rate of conventionally-operated, stabilized units increased 0.17% from last quarter to 6.1%. The University submarket had the lowest vacancy of any submarket at 3.7%. South Central Tucson, Southeast Tucson, and Pantano/Lakeside were the only three submarkets to record vacancies over 7.0%, with vacancies of 8.3%, 7.7% and 7.0% respectively. Five of the 15 submarkets experienced improved vacancy, with Tucson Mountain Foothills leading the way with a vacancy reduction of 2.0%. 

Positive momentum continued its five-year trend in 2018 in the Tucson industrial market, with vacancy improving to 5.7%, cut in half from its highest point in recent years. At year end, vacancy was lowest in the city center at 1.5% and highest in the Southwest/Airport area at 12.8%. Net absorption was 50.4% stronger than in 2017, and thanks to Amazon’s two projects, space under construction has quadrupled year over year. Significantly, Amazon is entering the market with an 850,000 square foot (sf) distribution center under construction in the southeast sector and a new 50,000 sf service center in the southwest.