Keeping Score: New TAR Scorecard Tracks Tucson Real Estate Market Metrics

The TAR Scorecard gathers data from different sources to present a broader, comprehensive view of the overall real estate-housing and development market. The objective is to identify emerging trends in various subsectors. Viewed separately, these subsectors may not appear to be interrelated.  But over time, the data ultimately converges to affect the performance of the entire market.

Find excerpts of the new monthly report below, with a link to the full report.

The mid-year score of Tucson area real estate

At the mid-point of 2013, Southern Arizona’s real estate, housing and land markets are in recovery. Nothing stellar, but steady.

Sales of existing homes are climbing, foreclosure notices are stabilizing, some land that has been on the market for over 1,500 days has sold, and new home starts are the highest since 2010.

Since January, 7th, 323 homes have sold; a year over-year increase of 139. Average and median sales prices are both up at least eight percent (8%).

YTD permits up 25% over 2012 pace

With new home permits up 25% yearto-date and new-built closings up 29%, the mid-year data now clearly confirms that the region’s housing recovery is solid.

Considering the 1.9% year-over-year increase in resale home closings, builders are doing a good job of capturing their share of buyers.

Looking forward into the 2014 first quarter, some 1,750 lots are expected to come to market. Openings will be weighted in the northwest and southeast submarkets. D.R. Horton will open the largest project at Saguaro Bloom in Marana with 279 lots.

Tucson land update

In the land sector, the 2012 sales momentum has carried into 2013. Last year, over $90 million in land transactions closed. This included finished and platted lots, and raw land acquired by both builders and investors. In 2011, the total was only $34 million.

Through 2015, housing activity is projected to accelerate as positive net migration returns to
Arizona. Meanwhile, federal spending cuts will impact Arizona more than the average state.

The first signs of sequestration’s likely impact will be job gains or losses in manufacturing and the professional/business service sectors.

The TAR Scorecard will be published monthly with copies available online at

Roger Yohem TAR

Roger Yohem is Communications Director for the Tucson Association of REALTORS®. His versatile 25-year career experience has included national award-winning communications and community outreach programs at the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association (SAHBA) and Tucson Electric Power; and statewide honors for opinion column/news reporting at Inside Tucson Business.      

Sources: Bright Future Real Estate Research; Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR

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