PICOR Connect | Trends in Commercial Real Estate

CoStar Group, Inc., the data/analytics leader of the commercial real estate industry, has announced this year’s Power Broker Award recipients, recognizing professionals and firms who closed the highest transaction volume in commercial real estate deals, leading in their respective markets. In Tucson, AZ, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR maintained uninterrupted achievement among both the Top Leasing Firms and Top Sales Firms ranking highest in productivity. At the individual recognition level, C&W | PICOR professionals represented the majority of the most active Tucson dealmakers, capturing 12 of the top 21 spots. C&W | PICOR team members comprised at least two of the top five in every category, including office leasing, retail leasing, industrial leasing, and sales.

The Tucson office market had a strong showing to finish 2020, with 162,000 square feet (sf) of office space coming off the market during the fourth quarter. Quarterly absorption contracted to negative 19,000 sf from the previous quarter’s negative 181,000 sf. The vacancy rate improved by twenty basis points to 9.2% from 9.4%, while the overall average rental rate for the metro area dropped to $20.52 per square foot (psf), from that of $20.91 psf in Q3 2020. The shift is subtle but shows Tucson office landlords are proactively responding to a changing marketplace, enticing tenants with more advantageous deal terms.

With new COVID-19 relief bills making their way through Congress, Arizona businesses are expected to receive additional economic relief in the following months. Arizona’s unemployment has risen from 5.9% in August to 7.8% in November largely due to the ramifications of the pandemic. Tucson’s unemployment correlated almost exactly to Arizona’s, increasing from 5.9% in August to 7.6% in November. The national unemployment rate stands at 6.7%. California residents have moved in large numbers into the Phoenix and Tucson markets due to the lower cost of living. This increase in population will likely have positive impacts on the market in 2021.

As in most markets in the United States, the Tucson retail real estate market strained in the third quarter to adapt to the realities of COVID-19 era business. Some large format retailers already pressured by online retailing and changing consumer preferences have simply been unable to continue operation.

Supply in the Tucson industrial market remains stable, with only one new industrial project under construction. We do hear of numerous proposed industrial developments in the region with 5,000-10,000 square foot (sf) bays. We expect supply of small-bay industrial (under 5,000 sf) to remain consistent until rents grow by 35%-50%.

Barbi Reuter is among seven commercial real estate leaders elected to the CREW (Commercial Real Estate Women) Network global board of directors, serving in the capacity of President-Elect in 2021. The new leaders were introduced on Sept. 17 at the virtual 2020 CREW Network Convention.

CREW is the industry’s leading advocate for the advancement of women in commercial real estate, and Reuter will be the first Tucsonan to lead the 12,000 member organization when she serves as President in 2022.

Much has been written about the return to the office after the “Great Pandemic of 2020.” In March 2020 when millions of workers were sent home, speculation began about the “new workplace.” Many said working from home was the wave of the future and would spell the death of the office. Initial surveys showed that as many as 75% of workers wanted to work from home. With the elimination of drive-time, and being home with family, who wouldn’t? Even productivity seemed higher. Then, over time, started the little murmurs, that perhaps the office was not completely extinct. There was perhaps, still a need for the office and that workers wanted to return to the workplace. Recent workforce surveys demonstrate that the 75% want to return to the office, many of them younger, newer to the working world.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 11,000 businesses in Arizona and 1,300 in Tucson received economic relief from the federal government. While Arizona posted one of the sharpest unemployment drops in the country in May, it increased in June from 9% to 10%. On a positive note, The University of Arizona reopened with a mixture of online and in-person classes on August 24^th, and LendingTree.com named Tucson the number one searched market for “homes for sale” during the pandemic in the U.S.

Last week, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR principal and office properties specialist Rick Kleiner joined the Back to Business Radio Show and Podcast on KVOI, the Voice, in Tucson. Hosts Rob Davidson and Alan Miklofsky had an exchange with Rick about such topics as the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors of the Tucson commercial real estate market, including office and medical, industrial, retail and multi-family properties.

This report is a snapshot of where the market is today and projects where it may be in the near future.