PICOR Connect | Trends in Commercial Real Estate

Not a day goes by that one of our landlord clients, an appraiser, or lender doesn’t ask us what the Tucson office market will look like once we work our way through the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We certainly wish we had a crystal ball that could see through this conundrum; however, it just isn’t that easy. The crystal ball, as clouded as it is, probably would not hold a vision of this pandemic ending tomorrow and all office workers returning back to their offices. The likelihood of this happening approaches zero. But, let’s just say it does end tomorrow, what happens to the office space?

In Q2, Tucson’s post-pandemic office market began to re-center itself, as vaccinations became more widespread, and employers planned their return to office strategies. Vacancy rose to 9.5%, with an expectation it will approach 10.0% by year-end before stabilizing. Activity was strongest in the healthcare-related fields, with hospice, home health care, counseling and therapy uses most prevalent.

In Q2 2021, Tucson industrial and flex space of all types remained the darling during tumultuous pandemic times and for the foreseeable future. E-commerce and expanded consumer buying power drove logistics and fulfillment demand and a 5.5% vacancy rate in the market.

For investors looking for investments $20 million and under, Tucson ranked number 4 on the list of small/middle sized markets. A larger driver of the demand for multifamily in Tucson is the attractive year-over-year (YOY) average rent growth of 9.1%. The shortage of affordable and traditional housing in Tucson also fuels apartment rental demand. With construction costs tripling on certain building materials, housing development has slowed down drastically over the past 12 months. In a market with the typical average residential for sale inventory at about 6,000 listings, fewer than 1,000 homes are for sale. This shortage has led to increased demand for multifamily living, which in turn has driven down Tucson’s vacancy rate.

Tucson’s Q2 retail vacancy held steady at 6.2% amid a resurgence in demand for consumer goods, entertainment, and travel as vaccine availability and guidance opened the door for spending like it’s 2019. Summer midweek waitlists at restaurants have become a thing. With continued strength in class A space, class B and C properties saw improved absorption and declining vacancies. Among the sizzling regions in the retail market include the Central East submarket (Campbell Ave corridor, and the University area), Foothills submarket (Oracle Rd and Ina Rd), and a return to the Downtown submarket. Medical and service-based users have increased appetites for neighborhood-based locations, with competition between multiple clinic brands entering the Tucson market.

CoStar Group, Inc., the data/analytics leader of the commercial real estate industry, has announced this year’s Power Broker Award recipients, recognizing professionals and firms who closed the highest transaction volume in commercial real estate deals, leading in their respective markets. In Tucson, AZ, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR maintained uninterrupted achievement among both the Top Leasing Firms and Top Sales Firms ranking highest in productivity. At the individual recognition level, C&W | PICOR professionals represented the majority of the most active Tucson dealmakers, capturing 12 of the top 21 spots. C&W | PICOR team members comprised at least two of the top five in every category, including office leasing, retail leasing, industrial leasing, and sales.

The Tucson office market had a strong showing to finish 2020, with 162,000 square feet (sf) of office space coming off the market during the fourth quarter. Quarterly absorption contracted to negative 19,000 sf from the previous quarter’s negative 181,000 sf. The vacancy rate improved by twenty basis points to 9.2% from 9.4%, while the overall average rental rate for the metro area dropped to $20.52 per square foot (psf), from that of $20.91 psf in Q3 2020. The shift is subtle but shows Tucson office landlords are proactively responding to a changing marketplace, enticing tenants with more advantageous deal terms.

Supply in the Tucson industrial market remains stable, with only one new industrial project under construction. We do hear of numerous proposed industrial developments in the region with 5,000-10,000 square foot (sf) bays. We expect supply of small-bay industrial (under 5,000 sf) to remain consistent until rents grow by 35%-50%.

Barbi Reuter is among seven commercial real estate leaders elected to the CREW (Commercial Real Estate Women) Network global board of directors, serving in the capacity of President-Elect in 2021. The new leaders were introduced on Sept. 17 at the virtual 2020 CREW Network Convention.

CREW is the industry’s leading advocate for the advancement of women in commercial real estate, and Reuter will be the first Tucsonan to lead the 12,000 member organization when she serves as President in 2022.

Much has been written about the return to the office after the “Great Pandemic of 2020.” In March 2020 when millions of workers were sent home, speculation began about the “new workplace.” Many said working from home was the wave of the future and would spell the death of the office. Initial surveys showed that as many as 75% of workers wanted to work from home. With the elimination of drive-time, and being home with family, who wouldn’t? Even productivity seemed higher. Then, over time, started the little murmurs, that perhaps the office was not completely extinct. There was perhaps, still a need for the office and that workers wanted to return to the workplace. Recent workforce surveys demonstrate that the 75% want to return to the office, many of them younger, newer to the working world.