Through 2017, large price increases forecast for Tucson homes

BY: Roger Yohem
March 5, 2013

In the Tucson metropolitan area, average home prices increased 8.2 percent in the past year. By early October, prices are estimated to rise another 2.2 percent.

And from there, the forecast gets even better. The Tucson region’s housing recovery is expected to gain more value-momentum.

Average home prices are projected to grow at an annualized rate of 7.2 percent from the 2012 third quarter through the 2017 third quarter, according to new data from the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes.

Fiserv Case-Shiller tracks home price trends in some 380 metropolitan markets. In most regions, the data is trending toward a return to a “normal” housing market for the entire country. Overall, the gains in values have been solid and broad-based.

By 2014, home prices will be rising in nearly every market, according to Fiserv chief economist David Stiff.

“In all the bubble-crash markets, foreclosures will have a persistent but diminishing drag on price appreciation. Since the timing of the disposition of foreclosed properties can be uncertain, we will witness choppy price movements as individual metro markets stabilize,” he said.

In general, investor demand has absorbed many bank-owned properties. As a result, “foreclosures are no longer pulling home prices downward,” he added

Locally, home prices peaked in the 2006 first quarter and dropped 40.4 percent as of the 2012 third quarter. Dating back to 1980, the worst one-year decline was a 19.8 percent loss for the 12-month period ended 2009 first quarter, according to Fiserv Case-Shiller.

Contact reporter Roger Yohem at [email protected] or (520) 295-4254.

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